With almost two months left in the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, marinas, insurers and boat owners are hoping the experts were wrong.

Scientists from academia, industry and government had never predicted more severe tropical storms making landfall on U.S. shores than they did in 2007. The odds, they said, were almost three to one that a major hurricane would hit the United States this year.

Yet on the heels of the two-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the seas and skies have thus far been relatively stable. Hurricane Dean went to Mexico. Hurricane Erin dumped more rain on already-soaked Texas but didn’t cause much marine damage.

“We are happy as clams right now,” said Carroll Robertson, senior vice president of claims at BoatUS Marine Insurance, “but things could change.”

SURGE IN DAMAGES

When a serious storm does strike, the damages add up fast. BoatUS estimates that Hurricane Katrina caused as much as $750 million in damage to recreational boats and destroyed 75 percent of the marinas along 150 miles of the Gulf Coast when it struck in 2005. That was more than double the $330 million in total damages caused by four big storms the previous year and it topped the $500 million caused by Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which is believed to be the previous record.

The insurance industry pegs hurricanes as the costliest natural disasters to hit the U.S. every year. Furthermore, those costs are rising because the coastlines where storms make landfall are becoming more developed, because more hurricanes are occurring and because those that form are growing more severe.In hurricane-force winds, boats can become projectiles. Whether to keep your boat on water or on land, and how it is secured, are major decisions that will impact its fate.

Hurricanes can bring winds of 70 to 130 MPH, rainfall of 6 to 12 inches in a 24-hour period and water levels 10 to 20 feet above the normal high tide, according to BoatUS. Large waves, tornados and other anomalies are also possible.

At sea, a storm surge has no meaning. The sea level merely rises a few feet—or a few dozen—with little consequence. On land, however, the combination of storm surge, high tides and flash floods from intense rain can inundate coastal plains, taking out bridges, levees, roadways and buildings, and destroying infrastructure such as communication and power lines.

At a marina, the consequences can be devastating. Heavy rains can overwhelm bilge pumps and run down batteries, but experts say that is only the beginning. “It doesn’t compare to a wind event or storm surge event,” Robertson said.

When flood waters and storm surge combine with high tides to force water far higher than normal, boats tied to stationary docks with short lines can sink when the rising water simply submerges them. Floating docks can break from their moorings and drift, leaving the boats attached to smash into land and each other. Severe damage can also be caused by the boats themselves, which can become deadly airborne missiles in hurricane-force winds.

Richard Haddad, a retired geologist who lives in Pittsburgh and winters in Hutchinson Island, Florida, had an experience like that after Hurricane Frances. His 27-foot Bayliner was found a few feet from the No. 8 hole on the golf course at his condo complex—about a quarter mile from the marina.

Insurance paid for the damage from Frances, but the ordeal was not over. “Frances wiped out the docks,” Haddad said, “and Wilma did it again.”

PREPARING YOUR BOAT

Making matters worse, boaters like Haddad are rarely on top of the list for assistance when post-hurricane cleanup begins. With thousands of families making do on military rations and camping in high school gyms, boat owners can get little sympathy. Even those in the marine industry—boat yards, towing companies, salvagers, mechanics and others—will be in maximum overdrive for weeks after a storm.A boat deposited onto mooring poles by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which wiped out three quarters of the marinas along the Gulf Coast.

The lesson: it pays to prepare for hurricane season well in advance and have a plan in place that factors in the scarcity of resources after a storm.

“A lot of people don’t really think about it until the hurricane is just over the horizon,” says Bob Adriance, vice president for technical services at BoatUS, the nation’s largest organization for recreational boaters. “You really need to think about it well ahead of the hurricane.”

The details of your hurricane plan will depend on the type of boat you own, where you keep it, your own capabilities and the resources available in your area. You must determine whether the boat will be kept on land or on water, how it will be secured, what gear should be removed, what safety measures will be added, who will conduct the work (and the transport or hauling), when the work will take place and how much it will cost. Obviously, a plan like this will be different for every owner.

But there are some common starting points. BoatUS has a Preparation Guide and a Hurricane Worksheet that serve as a good place to begin. They will give you some basic questions to answer and help organize your thoughts. The organization also offers historical information on hurricanes, links to current storm tracking, sample plans, case studies and recommendations at the Hurricane Resource Center on their website. A satellite image of Hurricane Kate, which clocked winds as high 98 MPH over the Atlantic in 2003. This season, no major hurricanes have made landfall.

The best plans are also based on research into what works in your area. Begin by reviewing the contract with your marina and the marina’s own hurricane plan, which will tell you any requirements that apply to you and your boat and the facility’s general strategy during a hurricane. Talk with the manager at the facility to better understand their approach, then seek out some long-time slip holders who can tell you how things worked in practice the last time the plan was executed. You can also talk to yard foremen, lift operators, towers, mechanics and anyone else who might have ideas or perspective.

Another key item is to review your marine insurance policy to see what is covered, and to make any required adjustments. Your vessel should be insured to your satisfaction in advance of storm season. Just as many homeowners can’t get coverage if a named storm is on the way, boat owners face similar restrictions. “Once a storm is on the horizon, some insurance companies will stop binding coverage,” Robertson said.

Another consideration is buying required items in advance. Dock lines, chafing gear, tarps, mooring equipment and other storm-related gear will be in short supply when a hurricane approaches. Making a list of your needs and purchasing them in advance can safeguard you from scarcity.

When you are finished, the result should be a well-designed plan indicating where and how your boat will ride out a hurricane; a group of professionals ready and able to carry out that plan; an assemblage of gear to facilitate their work; and some indication of the costs you will endure and how much help you can expect from your insurance company.

PREDICTING TROUBLE

Trying to predict the outcome of the hurricane season – which runs from June 1 through November 30 – usually produces a humbling jumble of victories and defeats. The prediction by scientists of more storms than usual in eight of the ten years from 1995 to 2004 was right. But meteorologists were wrong when they predicted that 2005 would produce 12 to 15 named tropical storms, including seven to nine hurricanes.

What emerged were more named storms than the alphabet could enumerate, including the unprecedented appearance of four super-strong hurricanes that ranked as Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpon scale—double the previous record. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita left more than 1,200 people dead and wrought more that $100 billion in economic damage in the United States. (For a table explaining the Saffir-Simpon scale, see link below.) In the aftermath of any major hurricane, services are difficult to come by. Companies that tow, haul out, salvage or make repairs are often scrambling to accommodate the needs of the local boating community.

Hurricane honchos were also wrong in predicting that 2006 would be a big year for hurricanes hitting U.S. coasts. There were none.

In retrospect, experts say they were off that year because El Niño, the periodic cross-Pacific equatorial warm water mass, produced strong westerly winds that tend to push Caribbean hurricanes northeastward and to shear off those that come near the Gulf of Mexico. They believe they underestimated the threat in 2005 because La Niña, the cool-water opposite of El Niño, reduced westerly winds, enticing storms onto more southerly courses, where they gained strength from warmer waters.

Doug Hellman, owner of the Sebastian River Marina in Florida, has been in the marine industry for 41 years and he attended the annual hurricane preparation conference BoatUS sponsored in Orlando last March. One expert cautioned against putting too much focus on either El Niño or La Niña, saying instead that we are about halfway through an active storm cycle, which run from 25 to 40 years.

After decades in the tropics, Hellman said storms are storms, regardless of the science behind them. “They go round and round and knock things down.”

Freelancer Edward Roeder contributed to this report.