November 21, 2009
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NOAA Forecast Question for Doug

ultangler
Posts: 3
Joined: 2008-03-25

Hey Doug - call me crazy, but I've noticed (along with others at the dock) that the marine weather forecasts for our area (Mid-Atlantic, MD/DE/VA) have actually become less specific and less accurate then they used to be. In fact, the timing can be traced back to a specific switch or change of some nature about 5 or 6 years ago, when the NOAA broadcasts around here switched channels, and became much more broad in nature. Suddenly more land-based forecasts were included, and forecasts that previously would have been for winds of 10 to 15 or for 15 to 20 were made for the wide range of 10 to 20--these are accurate more often, sure, but only because the range is so darn broad. Was there some sort of administrative or policy change at NOAA some years back, that's responsible for these changes? And if so, is there any hope of it going back to the way it used to be? As a mariner, a tighter forecast is of much more use to me, even if it's not 100% as accurate as often. (A forecast of 10 to 20 mph may be correct but is completely useless, for example. It's like saying it might be really nice out there, or it might be really terrible.) I've always wanted to ask this question so thanks for being here to answer it - I can't wait to hear what the deal is!

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TheWeatherMan
Posts: 23
Joined: 2007-12-05

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you...summer vacation...a time to recharge the battery.  I can look into your complaint more thoroughly...however...I can highlight two things.

First...about 6-7 years ago...the National Weather Service turned to digitally gridded forecasts...called the National Digital Forecast Database...or NDFD.  This may have affected the resolution (specificity).  Secondly...forecasts better reflect the state of science...so when forecasts give a spread of 10 degrees...there is enough uncertainty to warrant the greater range.  Though this could be viewed as a poor forecast...it provides some of the uncertainty involved...especially when dealing with winds...which can be highly variable in time and space.   



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