Take a moment and check out the National Hurricane Center's home page, www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Note the vast expanse of the blue Atlantic, devoid of spinning red icons and five-day "cones of death," as the dark-humored among us call them. The experts confirm it: "There are no tropical cyclones at this time." Same in the Pacific.

I love that.

Unfortunately, quiet times can make folks complacent. And they do little to change the minds of stubborn ones.

The Associated Press recently reported on a Harvard study that found nearly one-fourth of people in areas affected by Hurricane Katrina would refuse to evacuate for a storm, even if they were told to.

Their rationale had two components: faith and fear. Faith that their houses would survive and fear that they could not get out safely.

Good planning can help with the fear. And a review of past disasters can test the faith.

Texas got lucky with Dolly this time. Flooding, but no reported deaths. Power outages affected 200,000 residents, but the storm weakened as soon as it made landfall, though the rains added to the floodwaters in the Rio Grande Valley.

Rewind to 1957 and the picture was different. Hurricane Beulah was a Category 5 monster, a direct hit to the Rio Grande Valley. Nearly 60 people died, Beulah spawned 100 tornadoes and caused damage that exceeded $1 billion.

The name Beulah was retired.